Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

77.72 – 68.12

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

92 – 96

Prediction missed · off by 21.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 280.3 ±11.7

501The PowerKnights

Season APEX 68.8Event APEX 48.53Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

204Eastern Robotic Vikings

Season APEX 31.3Event APEX 26.28Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10979Tiger Robotics

Season APEX 180.2Event APEX 2.91Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 129.8 ±11

5789The Other Owls

Season APEX 64.6Event APEX 43.84Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1811FRESH

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 12.38Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10600Two Steps Ahead

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX 11.9Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 501, 204, 10979

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 501, 204, 10979

Auto

27.0 40%

Teleop

18.0 26%

Endgame

23.3 34%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5789, 1811, 10600

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5789, 1811, 10600

Auto

17.6 29%

Teleop

28.3 46%

Endgame

15.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score77.7pts

Blue projected score68.1pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.6
Score range: 47–99
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 188 vs event baseline 118.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

280.3Season APEX129.8

27Auto17.6

18Teleop28.3

23.3Endgame15.2

13Consistency87

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	19
teleop	67	56
endgame	6	21
foul	0	0
total	92	96

Result

Final score

92 – 96

Prediction missed · off by 21.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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