Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

111.23 – 40.67

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

86 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 22.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 228.8 ±9.8

1279Cold Fusion

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 42.05Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 23.91Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

423Simple Machines

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 45.27Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 137.5 ±13.3

2720Red Watch Robotics

Season APEX 40.3Event APEX 34.85Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10989Blast Robotics

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 4.19Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

203SOUPERBOTS

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 1.63Rank 31Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1279, 4575, 423

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1279, 4575, 423

Auto

28.1 25%

Teleop

69.5 62%

Endgame

14.7 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2720, 10989, 203

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2720, 10989, 203

Auto

16.6 41%

Teleop

22.9 56%

Endgame

1.4 3%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.82 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score111.2pts

Blue projected score40.7pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 70.6
Score range: 19–133
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 146 vs event baseline 119.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

228.8Season APEX137.5

28.1Auto16.6

69.5Teleop22.9

14.7Endgame1.4

39Consistency101

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	33
teleop	36	21
endgame	28	6
foul	0	0
total	86	60

Result

Final score

86 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 22.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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