Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

169.36 – 152.92

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

116 – 278

Prediction missed · off by 89.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 391.4 ±11.2

2016Mighty Monkey Wrenches

Season APEX 83.7Event APEX 42.35Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9094The Earthquakers

Season APEX 256Event APEX 94.71Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

714Panthera

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 32.3Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 401.7 ±10.5

10143Northeast Vikings

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 17.03Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6921Technados

Season APEX 110.3Event APEX 36.53Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1218SCH Robotics

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 99.36Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2016, 9094, 714

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2016, 9094, 714

Auto

35.6 21%

Teleop

106.8 62%

Endgame

29.2 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10143, 6921, 1218

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10143, 6921, 1218

Auto

31.5 21%

Teleop

91.8 60%

Endgame

29.1 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score169.4pts

Blue projected score152.9pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.4
Score range: 132–190
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 394 vs event baseline 117.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

391.4Season APEX401.7

35.6Auto31.5

106.8Teleop91.8

29.2Endgame29.1

64Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	37
teleop	40	154
endgame	46	87
foul	0	0
total	116	278

Result

Final score

116 – 278

Prediction missed · off by 89.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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