Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

130.49 – 121.22

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

82 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 56.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 148.4 ±10.4

9014Vulcan Mechanics

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 63.63Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1811FRESH

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 21.51Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6808William Tennent Robotics

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX 45.35Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 161 ±11.7

2180Zero Gravity

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 2.42Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

501The PowerKnights

Season APEX 68.8Event APEX 58.48Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5789The Other Owls

Season APEX 64.6Event APEX 60.32Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9014, 1811, 6808

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9014, 1811, 6808

Auto

12.9 10%

Teleop

84.2 66%

Endgame

31.2 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2180, 501, 5789

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2180, 501, 5789

Auto

27.2 22%

Teleop

44.6 36%

Endgame

51.1 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score130.5pts

Blue projected score121.2pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.3
Score range: 100–151
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 139 vs event baseline 119.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

148.4Season APEX161

12.9Auto27.2

84.2Teleop44.6

31.2Endgame51.1

119Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	22
teleop	20	3
endgame	30	12
foul	0	20
total	82	57

Result

Final score

82 – 57

Prediction correct · off by 56.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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