Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

89.1 – 145.37

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 38.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 220.1 ±11.1

8630CAP ROBOTICS

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX 26.33Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

321RoboLancers

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 30.9Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2720Red Watch Robotics

Season APEX 40.3Event APEX 31.87Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 448.5 ±11.2

10979Tiger Robotics

Season APEX 180.2Event APEX 13.84Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1218SCH Robotics

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 116.5Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

816Anomaly

Season APEX 33Event APEX 15.03Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8630, 321, 2720

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8630, 321, 2720

Auto

28.7 33%

Teleop

36.0 42%

Endgame

21.1 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10979, 1218, 816

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10979, 1218, 816

Auto

28.9 20%

Teleop

90.1 63%

Endgame

24.9 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.06 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score89.1pts

Blue projected score145.4pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -56.3
Score range: 65–169
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 157 vs event baseline 133.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

220.1Season APEX448.5

28.7Auto28.9

36Teleop90.1

21.1Endgame24.9

43Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	17
teleop	10	66
endgame	10	13
foul	15	10
total	51	106

Result

Final score

51 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 38.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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