Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

86.61 – 56.71

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

95 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 13.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 249.2 ±10.7

816Anomaly

Season APEX 33Event APEX 23.66Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

321RoboLancers

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 40.25Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 22.7Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 124.6 ±12.2

2720Red Watch Robotics

Season APEX 40.3Event APEX 32.39Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

204Eastern Robotic Vikings

Season APEX 31.3Event APEX 20.67Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4638Jagbots

Season APEX 53Event APEX 3.65Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 816, 321, 4575

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 816, 321, 4575

Auto

26.6 34%

Teleop

36.1 47%

Endgame

14.5 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2720, 204, 4638

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2720, 204, 4638

Auto

30.3 57%

Teleop

16.8 31%

Endgame

6.5 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score86.6pts

Blue projected score56.7pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.9
Score range: 36–108
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 171 vs event baseline 119.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

249.2Season APEX124.6

26.6Auto30.3

36.1Teleop16.8

14.5Endgame6.5

83Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	39
teleop	32	12
endgame	28	20
foul	0	5
total	95	76

Result

Final score

95 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 13.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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