Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

58.6 – 50.26

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

91 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 18.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 161.3 ±11.7

2180Zero Gravity

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 0.12Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1811FRESH

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 14.73Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

423Simple Machines

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 43.75Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 258 ±11.7

10170ND Robotics

Season APEX 35.5Event APEX 2.02Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6808William Tennent Robotics

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX 48.94Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10979Tiger Robotics

Season APEX 180.2Event APEX -0.7Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2180, 1811, 423

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2180, 1811, 423

Auto

15.6 27%

Teleop

33.3 57%

Endgame

9.5 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10170, 6808, 10979

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10170, 6808, 10979

Auto

9.3 19%

Teleop

26.3 53%

Endgame

13.9 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score58.6pts

Blue projected score50.3pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.3
Score range: 28–81
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 145 vs event baseline 121.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

161.3Season APEX258

15.6Auto9.3

33.3Teleop26.3

9.5Endgame13.9

134Consistency92

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	15
teleop	48	19
endgame	30	20
foul	0	0
total	91	54

Result

Final score

91 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 18.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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