Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

116.55 – 86.39

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

188 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 44.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 345.6 ±10.5

2016Mighty Monkey Wrenches

Season APEX 83.7Event APEX 26.64Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1218SCH Robotics

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 92.46Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10600Two Steps Ahead

Season APEX 26.6Event APEX -2.55Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 150.6 ±11.7

816Anomaly

Season APEX 33Event APEX 17.42Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5789The Other Owls

Season APEX 64.6Event APEX 66.08Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4638Jagbots

Season APEX 53Event APEX 2.89Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2016, 1218, 10600

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2016, 1218, 10600

Auto

14.1 12%

Teleop

84.8 73%

Endgame

17.0 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 816, 5789, 4638

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 816, 5789, 4638

Auto

26.6 32%

Teleop

37.1 44%

Endgame

20.0 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score116.6pts

Blue projected score86.4pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.2
Score range: 65–138
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 292 vs event baseline 118.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

345.6Season APEX150.6

14.1Auto26.6

84.8Teleop37.1

17Endgame20

124Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	37
teleop	109	39
endgame	58	23
foul	0	5
total	188	104

Result

Final score

188 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 44.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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