Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

114.5 – 27.24

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

112 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 39.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 190.6 ±11

10949Metalheads

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 19.96Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2720Red Watch Robotics

Season APEX 40.3Event APEX 35.76Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10918Bluesteel Dragons

Season APEX 86.5Event APEX 58.78Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 187.6 ±12.4

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 13.53Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

714Panthera

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 23.96Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10989Blast Robotics

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX -10.25Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10949, 2720, 10918

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10949, 2720, 10918

Auto

26.2 24%

Teleop

43.7 40%

Endgame

38.2 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4575, 714, 10989

/ 100 compat

Projected

27.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4575, 714, 10989

Auto

25.9 97%

Teleop

9.5 35%

Endgame

-8.6 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.89 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score114.5pts

Blue projected score27.2pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 87.3
Score range: 6–136
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 215 vs event baseline 118.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

190.6Season APEX187.6

26.2Auto25.9

43.7Teleop9.5

38.2Endgame-8.6

26Consistency101

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	29
teleop	57	39
endgame	25	35
foul	0	0
total	112	103

Result

Final score

112 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 39.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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