Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

189 – 83.86

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

172 – 181

Prediction missed · off by 57.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 212.6 ±11.7

365Miracle Workerz

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 82.77Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9014Vulcan Mechanics

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 71.62Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

204Eastern Robotic Vikings

Season APEX 31.3Event APEX 34.61Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 349 ±9.3

423Simple Machines

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 33.9Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

708Hatters Robotics

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 26.46Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

321RoboLancers

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 23.5Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 365, 9014, 204

/ 100 compat

Projected

189 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 365, 9014, 204

Auto

27.3 14%

Teleop

97.9 52%

Endgame

64.0 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 423, 708, 321

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 423, 708, 321

Auto

16.1 21%

Teleop

27.5 35%

Endgame

34.2 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.09 · Blue 0.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score189pts

Blue projected score83.9pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 105.1
Score range: 63–210
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 353 vs event baseline 116.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

212.6Season APEX349

27.3Auto16.1

97.9Teleop27.5

64Endgame34.2

76Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	33
teleop	74	109
endgame	76	34
foul	0	5
total	172	181

Result

Final score

172 – 181

Prediction missed · off by 57.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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