Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

44.17 – 106.34

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

106 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 63.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 153.2 ±11.7

203SOUPERBOTS

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX -0.43Rank 31Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1811FRESH

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX -9.08Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

501The PowerKnights

Season APEX 68.8Event APEX 53.68Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 338.2 ±11.2

1279Cold Fusion

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 30.01Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

816Anomaly

Season APEX 33Event APEX -5.95Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9094The Earthquakers

Season APEX 256Event APEX 82.28Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 203, 1811, 501

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 203, 1811, 501

Auto

9.2 24%

Teleop

13.3 34%

Endgame

16.1 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1279, 816, 9094

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1279, 816, 9094

Auto

29.0 28%

Teleop

61.4 60%

Endgame

12.3 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.01 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score44.2pts

Blue projected score106.3pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -62.2
Score range: 23–127
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 278 vs event baseline 115.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

153.2Season APEX338.2

9.2Auto29

13.3Teleop61.4

16.1Endgame12.3

158Consistency81

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	40
teleop	44	112
endgame	35	20
foul	0	0
total	106	172

Result

Final score

106 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 63.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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