Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

275.18 – 134.63

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

303 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 27.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 395.8 ±9.8

10918Bluesteel Dragons

Season APEX 86.5Event APEX 40.1Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5789The Other Owls

Season APEX 64.6Event APEX 50.07Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1391The Metal Moose

Season APEX 244.7Event APEX 185.01Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 262.8 ±10.4

501The PowerKnights

Season APEX 68.8Event APEX 36.08Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2016Mighty Monkey Wrenches

Season APEX 83.7Event APEX 47.44Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6921Technados

Season APEX 110.3Event APEX 51.11Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10918, 5789, 1391

/ 100 compat

Projected

275.2 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10918, 5789, 1391

Auto

62.7 23%

Teleop

145.7 53%

Endgame

66.3 24%

Strengths

· 1391 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 501, 2016, 6921

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 501, 2016, 6921

Auto

22.4 17%

Teleop

60.6 47%

Endgame

46.3 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.21 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score275.2pts

Blue projected score134.6pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 140.6
Score range: 111–299
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 410 vs event baseline 133.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

395.8Season APEX262.8

62.7Auto22.4

145.7Teleop60.6

66.3Endgame46.3

0Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	16
teleop	170	55
endgame	85	31
foul	0	5
total	303	107

Result

Final score

303 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 27.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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