Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

31.66 – 107.24

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

74 – 155

Prediction correct · off by 45.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 239.2 ±11.7

10143Northeast Vikings

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 29.82Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

321RoboLancers

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 11.45Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10989Blast Robotics

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX -9.61Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 273.4 ±9.8

9014Vulcan Mechanics

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 68.11Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2016Mighty Monkey Wrenches

Season APEX 83.7Event APEX 12.64Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

708Hatters Robotics

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 26.49Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10143, 321, 10989

/ 100 compat

Projected

31.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10143, 321, 10989

Auto

11.2 60%

Teleop

-3.1 0%

Endgame

10.7 57%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9014, 2016, 708

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9014, 2016, 708

Auto

6.1 6%

Teleop

71.9 68%

Endgame

27.6 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.96 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score31.7pts

Blue projected score107.2pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -75.6
Score range: 11–128
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 229 vs event baseline 116.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

239.2Season APEX273.4

11.2Auto6.1

-3.1Teleop71.9

10.7Endgame27.6

113Consistency128

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	15
teleop	44	91
endgame	9	49
foul	0	0
total	74	155

Result

Final score

74 – 155

Prediction correct · off by 45.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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