Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

214.65 – 161.65

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

220 – 226

Prediction missed · off by 34.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 371.1 ±11.2

204Eastern Robotic Vikings

Season APEX 31.3Event APEX 38.01Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

423Simple Machines

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 44Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1391The Metal Moose

Season APEX 244.7Event APEX 132.64Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 411.3 ±9.8

9094The Earthquakers

Season APEX 256Event APEX 67.43Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

501The PowerKnights

Season APEX 68.8Event APEX 46.63Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10918Bluesteel Dragons

Season APEX 86.5Event APEX 47.59Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 204, 423, 1391

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 204, 423, 1391

Auto

34.9 17%

Teleop

130.3 62%

Endgame

45.2 21%

Strengths

· 1391 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9094, 501, 10918

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9094, 501, 10918

Auto

28.7 18%

Teleop

88.8 54%

Endgame

46.0 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score214.7pts

Blue projected score161.7pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 53
Score range: 142–235
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 446 vs event baseline 109.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

371.1Season APEX411.3

34.9Auto28.7

130.3Teleop88.8

45.2Endgame46

55Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	64
teleop	131	79
endgame	39	83
foul	0	0
total	220	226

Result

Final score

220 – 226

Prediction missed · off by 34.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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