Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

95.55 – 82

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

102 – 154

Prediction missed · off by 39.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 136 ±12.8

9014Vulcan Mechanics

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 67.67Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10170ND Robotics

Season APEX 35.5Event APEX 28.73Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

816Anomaly

Season APEX 33Event APEX -0.85Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 308.6 ±9.8

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX -1.18Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6921Technados

Season APEX 110.3Event APEX 36.48Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

365Miracle Workerz

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 46.7Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9014, 10170, 816

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9014, 10170, 816

Auto

7.3 8%

Teleop

56.1 60%

Endgame

30.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4575, 6921, 365

/ 100 compat

Projected

82 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4575, 6921, 365

Auto

12.2 15%

Teleop

46.0 57%

Endgame

22.2 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score95.6pts

Blue projected score82pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.5
Score range: 62–116
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 256 vs event baseline 109.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

136Season APEX308.6

7.3Auto12.2

56.1Teleop46

30.4Endgame22.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	42
teleop	45	61
endgame	38	51
foul	5	0
total	102	154

Result

Final score

102 – 154

Prediction missed · off by 39.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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