Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

126.98 – 203.27

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

89 – 181

Prediction correct · off by 30.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 242.1 ±11.2

203SOUPERBOTS

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 8.9Rank 31Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5789The Other Owls

Season APEX 64.6Event APEX 100.93Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

321RoboLancers

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 17.15Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 360.2 ±11.2

1391The Metal Moose

Season APEX 244.7Event APEX 135.33Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10949Metalheads

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 38.84Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

714Panthera

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 29.1Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 203, 5789, 321

/ 100 compat

Projected

127 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 203, 5789, 321

Auto

35.6 30%

Teleop

64.8 55%

Endgame

18.4 15%

Strengths

· 5789 anchors offense

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1391, 10949, 714

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1391, 10949, 714

Auto

21.3 11%

Teleop

117.6 59%

Endgame

60.3 30%

Strengths

· 1391 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.94 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score127pts

Blue projected score203.3pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -76.3
Score range: 107–223
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 270 vs event baseline 111.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

242.1Season APEX360.2

35.6Auto21.3

64.8Teleop117.6

18.4Endgame60.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	41
teleop	27	117
endgame	31	13
foul	0	10
total	89	181

Result

Final score

89 – 181

Prediction correct · off by 30.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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