Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

65.36 – 154.94

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

44 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 42.7 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 314.8 ±11

10979Tiger Robotics

Season APEX 180.2Event APEX 18.91Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10918Bluesteel Dragons

Season APEX 86.5Event APEX 48.9Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8630CAP ROBOTICS

Season APEX 48.1Event APEX -2.45Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 334.9 ±10.5

1811FRESH

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 11.33Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9094The Earthquakers

Season APEX 256Event APEX 87.44Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2720Red Watch Robotics

Season APEX 40.3Event APEX 56.17Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10979, 10918, 8630

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10979, 10918, 8630

Auto

10.6 17%

Teleop

19.7 32%

Endgame

30.9 50%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1811, 9094, 2720

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1811, 9094, 2720

Auto

40.7 28%

Teleop

98.6 67%

Endgame

8.6 6%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.91 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score65.4pts

Blue projected score154.9pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -89.6
Score range: 44–176
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 135 vs event baseline 115.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

314.8Season APEX334.9

10.6Auto40.7

19.7Teleop98.6

30.9Endgame8.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	26
teleop	8	51
endgame	24	14
foul	0	0
total	44	91

Result

Final score

44 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 42.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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