Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

112.12 – 59.96

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

156 – 31

Prediction correct · off by 36.4 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 365.9 ±11.2

10170ND Robotics

Season APEX 35.5Event APEX 16.69Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

423Simple Machines

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 31.27Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1218SCH Robotics

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 64.16Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 91.9 ±13.9

816Anomaly

Season APEX 33Event APEX 15.41Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2180Zero Gravity

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 19.09Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

204Eastern Robotic Vikings

Season APEX 31.3Event APEX 25.46Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10170, 423, 1218

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10170, 423, 1218

Auto

19.9 18%

Teleop

67.8 62%

Endgame

21.7 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 816, 2180, 204

/ 100 compat

Projected

60 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 816, 2180, 204

Auto

11.3 20%

Teleop

26.4 48%

Endgame

17.7 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score112.1pts

Blue projected score60pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52.2
Score range: 39–133
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 187 vs event baseline 117.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

365.9Season APEX91.9

19.9Auto11.3

67.8Teleop26.4

21.7Endgame17.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	21
teleop	90	9
endgame	38	1
foul	0	0
total	156	31

Result

Final score

156 – 31

Prediction correct · off by 36.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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