Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

95.63 – 96.04

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

80 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 24.3 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 210.5 ±9.8

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX -0.68Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6808William Tennent Robotics

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX 76.5Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2016Mighty Monkey Wrenches

Season APEX 83.7Event APEX 19.81Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 168.4 ±11.7

714Panthera

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 22.45Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1279Cold Fusion

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 20.6Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9014Vulcan Mechanics

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 52.99Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4575, 6808, 2016

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4575, 6808, 2016

Auto

16.5 17%

Teleop

63.1 66%

Endgame

15.3 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 714, 1279, 9014

/ 100 compat

Projected

96 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 714, 1279, 9014

Auto

8.0 8%

Teleop

64.1 68%

Endgame

22.2 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score95.6pts

Blue projected score96pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -0.4
Score range: 75–117
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 209 vs event baseline 119.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

210.5Season APEX168.4

16.5Auto8

63.1Teleop64.1

15.3Endgame22.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	18
teleop	55	87
endgame	8	24
foul	0	0
total	80	129

Result

Final score

80 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 24.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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