Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

80.91 – 95.03

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

100 – 88

Prediction missed · off by 13.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 205.2 ±11.7

365Miracle Workerz

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 42.98Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10949Metalheads

Season APEX 63.8Event APEX 17.44Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2180Zero Gravity

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 20.49Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 126 ±12.2

204Eastern Robotic Vikings

Season APEX 31.3Event APEX 27.25Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10143Northeast Vikings

Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 47.87Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1811FRESH

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 19.91Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 365, 10949, 2180

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 365, 10949, 2180

Auto

16.0 20%

Teleop

31.6 40%

Endgame

30.7 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 204, 10143, 1811

/ 100 compat

Projected

95 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 204, 10143, 1811

Auto

22.8 26%

Teleop

46.6 52%

Endgame

19.7 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score80.9pts

Blue projected score95pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -14.1
Score range: 57–119
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 188 vs event baseline 133.9.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

205.2Season APEX126

16Auto22.8

31.6Teleop46.6

30.7Endgame19.7

139Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	26
teleop	46	40
endgame	41	7
foul	0	15
total	100	88

Result

Final score

100 – 88

Prediction missed · off by 13.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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