Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

338.05 – 257.52

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

194 – 264

Prediction missed · off by 75.3 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 416.5 ±9.8

427LANCE-A-LOT

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 92.06Rank 14Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9015Questionable Engineering

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 31.41Rank 18Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

341Miss Daisy

Season APEX 278.9Event APEX 214.58Rank 4Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 248.5 ±11.7

157AZTECHS

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX -9.17Rank 8Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

321RoboLancers

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 101.71Rank 10Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

714Panthera

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 164.98Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 427, 9015, 341

/ 100 compat

Projected

338.1 pts

~2.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 427, 9015, 341

Auto

55.1 16%

Teleop

159.3 47%

Endgame

123.7 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 86%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 157, 321, 714

/ 100 compat

Projected

257.5 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 157, 321, 714

Auto

37.1 15%

Teleop

133.1 53%

Endgame

81.3 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 86%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.69 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score338.1pts

Blue projected score257.5pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample54alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 86%, blue 86%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 80.5
Score range: 199–397
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 458 vs event baseline 325.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

416.5Season APEX248.5

55.1Auto37.1

159.3Teleop133.1

123.7Endgame81.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	79
teleop	63	124
endgame	87	61
foul	0	0
total	194	264

Result

Final score

194 – 264

Prediction missed · off by 75.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree