Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

253.41 – 396.98

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

278 – 625

Prediction correct · off by 126.3 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 826.6 ±8.7

1218SCH Robotics

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 119.25Rank 9Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 24.87Rank 17Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 109.29Rank 11Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 782 ±9.3

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 172.44Rank 2Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 78.42Rank 13Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 146.12Rank 5Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1218, 2539, 484

/ 100 compat

Projected

253.4 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1218, 2539, 484

Auto

74.3 29%

Teleop

106.4 42%

Endgame

74.5 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 82%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6328, 122, 5000

/ 100 compat

Projected

397 pts

~3.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6328, 122, 5000

Auto

87.9 22%

Teleop

211.9 54%

Endgame

96.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 82%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.45 · Blue 3.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score253.4pts

Blue projected score397pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample54alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 82%, blue 92%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 43%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -143.6
Score range: 198–452
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 903 vs event baseline 307.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

826.6Season APEX782

74.3Auto87.9

106.4Teleop211.9

74.5Endgame96

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	85	144
teleop	161	321
endgame	32	155
foul	0	5
total	278	625

Result

Final score

278 – 625

Prediction correct · off by 126.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree