Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

156.31 – 313.33

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

42 – 225

Prediction correct · off by 101.3 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 334.3 ±10.4

9015Questionable Engineering

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 37.98Rank 18Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10979Tiger Robotics

Season APEX 180.2Event APEX 26.44Rank 20Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 91.89Rank 19Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 243.9 ±41.1

714Panthera

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 181.17Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9994Off-Season Demo Team 9994

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -4.93Rank 16Record 3-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 137.09Rank 6Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9015, 10979, 2377

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.3 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9015, 10979, 2377

Auto

25.3 17%

Teleop

66.7 44%

Endgame

60.7 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 714, 9994, 5181

/ 100 compat

Projected

313.3 pts

~2.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 714, 9994, 5181

Auto

71.9 23%

Teleop

181.2 58%

Endgame

61.2 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.27 · Blue 2.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score156.3pts

Blue projected score313.3pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample54alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 83%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -157
Score range: 95–374
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 267 vs event baseline 336.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

334.3Season APEX243.9

25.3Auto71.9

66.7Teleop181.2

60.7Endgame61.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	56
teleop	18	131
endgame	17	23
foul	0	15
total	42	225

Result

Final score

42 – 225

Prediction correct · off by 101.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree