Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

433.08 – 367.85

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

411 – 407

Prediction correct · off by 30.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 830 ±8.1

341Miss Daisy

Season APEX 278.9Event APEX 223.36Rank 4Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 65.99Rank 17Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 143.73Rank 7Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 686 ±9.3

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 35.43Rank 19Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 78.85Rank 11Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 253.57Rank 2Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 341, 2539, 190

/ 100 compat

Projected

433.1 pts

~2.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 341, 2539, 190

Auto

95.6 22%

Teleop

224.5 52%

Endgame

115.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 87%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2377, 484, 6328

/ 100 compat

Projected

367.9 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2377, 484, 6328

Auto

89.6 25%

Teleop

170.4 47%

Endgame

101.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 87%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.67 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score433.1pts

Blue projected score367.9pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample54alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 87%, blue 81%

Supercharged bonusred 39%, blue 40%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 65.2
Score range: 313–488
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 818 vs event baseline 303.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

830Season APEX686

95.6Auto89.6

224.5Teleop170.4

115.1Endgame101.3

32Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	106	94
teleop	189	174
endgame	116	129
foul	0	10
total	411	407

Result

Final score

411 – 407

Prediction correct · off by 30.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree