Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

121.13 – 406.09

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

73 – 442

Prediction correct · off by 42 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 366 ±10.5

9015Questionable Engineering

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 43.52Rank 18Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

157AZTECHS

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 37.3Rank 8Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3637The Daleks

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 40.31Rank 12Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 808.9 ±8.7

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 73.86Rank 6Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 147.3Rank 15Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 184.93Rank 5Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9015, 157, 3637

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.1 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9015, 157, 3637

Auto

32.7 27%

Teleop

64.9 54%

Endgame

23.7 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 84%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5181, 449, 5000

/ 100 compat

Projected

406.1 pts

~3.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5181, 449, 5000

Auto

106.2 27%

Teleop

226.1 56%

Endgame

68.3 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 84%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.1 · Blue 3.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score121.1pts

Blue projected score406.1pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample54alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 84%, blue 92%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -285
Score range: 66–461
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 515 vs event baseline 303.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

366Season APEX808.9

32.7Auto106.2

64.9Teleop226.1

23.7Endgame68.3

54Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	115
teleop	37	245
endgame	26	82
foul	5	0
total	73	442

Result

Final score

73 – 442

Prediction correct · off by 42 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree