Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

472.04 – 470.1

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

560 – 590

Prediction missed · off by 103.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 737.4 ±8.8

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 44.9Rank 13Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 143.73Rank 7Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

316LUNATECS

A+

Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 283.41Rank 1Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 565.9 ±10.7

341Miss Daisy

Season APEX 278.9Event APEX 223.36Rank 4Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

714Panthera

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 140.45Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1218SCH Robotics

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 106.29Rank 9Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 122, 190, 316

/ 100 compat

Projected

472 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 122, 190, 316

Auto

109.2 23%

Teleop

271.6 57%

Endgame

92.9 20%

Strengths

· 316 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 89%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 341, 714, 1218

/ 100 compat

Projected

470.1 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 341, 714, 1218

Auto

100.6 21%

Teleop

247.3 53%

Endgame

120.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 89%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.35 · Blue 2.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score472pts

Blue projected score470.1pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample54alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 89%, blue 92%

Supercharged bonusred 42%, blue 41%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1.9
Score range: 415–527
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 1150 vs event baseline 303.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

737.4Season APEX565.9

109.2Auto100.6

271.6Teleop247.3

92.9Endgame120.6

37Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	126	102
teleop	347	316
endgame	87	172
foul	0	0
total	560	590

Result

Final score

560 – 590

Prediction missed · off by 103.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree