Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

382.1 – 649.89

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

437 – 316

Prediction missed · off by 194.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 629.3 ±8.8

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 131.93Rank 7Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

427LANCE-A-LOT

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 7.53Rank 14Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 242.64Rank 2Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 952.7 ±8.7

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 224.97Rank 5Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

316LUNATECS

A+

Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 323.44Rank 1Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 101.48Rank 17Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 190, 427, 6328

/ 100 compat

Projected

382.1 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 190, 427, 6328

Auto

93.3 25%

Teleop

212.8 56%

Endgame

71.9 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 90%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5000, 316, 2539

/ 100 compat

Projected

649.9 pts

~3.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5000, 316, 2539

Auto

137.7 21%

Teleop

361.4 56%

Endgame

147.5 23%

Strengths

· 316 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 90%

Supercharged: 43%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.41 · Blue 3.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score382.1pts

Blue projected score649.9pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample54alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 90%, blue 90%

Supercharged bonusred 43%, blue 41%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -267.8
Score range: 328–704
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 753 vs event baseline 300.6.

← Previous

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

629.3Season APEX952.7

93.3Auto137.7

212.8Teleop361.4

71.9Endgame147.5

43Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	119	120
teleop	206	166
endgame	107	25
foul	5	5
total	437	316

Result

Final score

437 – 316

Prediction missed · off by 194.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree