Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

121.82 – 143.69

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

64 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 34.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 421.4 ±40.6

321RoboLancers

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 43.23Rank 10Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9994Off-Season Demo Team 9994

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -0.07Rank 16Record 3-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 78.66Rank 11Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 415.9 ±10.5

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 69.9Rank 6Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 42.22Rank 13Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

157AZTECHS

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 31.57Rank 8Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 321, 9994, 484

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.8 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 321, 9994, 484

Auto

37.5 31%

Teleop

65.9 55%

Endgame

16.0 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5181, 122, 157

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.7 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5181, 122, 157

Auto

48.0 34%

Teleop

54.4 38%

Endgame

39.8 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.88 · Blue 2.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score121.8pts

Blue projected score143.7pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample54alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 76%, blue 87%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21.9
Score range: 67–199
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 218 vs event baseline 308.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

421.4Season APEX415.9

37.5Auto48

65.9Teleop54.4

16Endgame39.8

64Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	38
teleop	10	76
endgame	42	40
foul	0	0
total	64	154

Result

Final score

64 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 34.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree