Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

360.58 – 327.48

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

466 – 458

Prediction correct · off by 118 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 596.3 ±9.3

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 230.8Rank 2Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9015Questionable Engineering

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 32.42Rank 18Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1218SCH Robotics

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 97.36Rank 9Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 754 ±9.3

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 130.92Rank 15Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10979Tiger Robotics

Season APEX 180.2Event APEX -12.09Rank 20Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

341Miss Daisy

Season APEX 278.9Event APEX 208.65Rank 4Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6328, 9015, 1218

/ 100 compat

Projected

360.6 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6328, 9015, 1218

Auto

95.0 26%

Teleop

176.1 49%

Endgame

90.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 87%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 449, 10979, 341

/ 100 compat

Projected

327.5 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 449, 10979, 341

Auto

63.3 20%

Teleop

160.0 50%

Endgame

97.5 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 87%

Supercharged: 40%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.49 · Blue 2.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score360.6pts

Blue projected score327.5pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample54alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 87%, blue 86%

Supercharged bonusred 40%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.1
Score range: 273–415
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 924 vs event baseline 301.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

596.3Season APEX754

95Auto63.3

176.1Teleop160

90.4Endgame97.5

17Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	105	82
teleop	264	244
endgame	97	132
foul	0	0
total	466	458

Result

Final score

466 – 458

Prediction correct · off by 118 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree