Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

135.32 – 127.28

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

107 – 307

Prediction missed · off by 104 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 478.3 ±9.8

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 46.66Rank 13Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3637The Daleks

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 76.81Rank 12Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

427LANCE-A-LOT

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 11.85Rank 14Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 409.3 ±10

157AZTECHS

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX -3.26Rank 8Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 38.24Rank 19Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 92.3Rank 7Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 122, 3637, 427

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.3 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 122, 3637, 427

Auto

42.8 33%

Teleop

87.1 68%

Endgame

-1.9 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 87%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 157, 2377, 190

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.3 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 157, 2377, 190

Auto

17.1 13%

Teleop

60.5 47%

Endgame

51.0 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 87%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.14 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score135.3pts

Blue projected score127.3pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample54alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 87%, blue 81%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8
Score range: 71–191
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 414 vs event baseline 309.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

478.3Season APEX409.3

42.8Auto17.1

87.1Teleop60.5

-1.9Endgame51

68Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	67
teleop	55	188
endgame	17	52
foul	0	0
total	107	307

Result

Final score

107 – 307

Prediction missed · off by 104 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree