Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

363.79 – 368.32

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

249 – 531

Prediction correct · off by 138.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 536.9 ±40.6

1218SCH Robotics

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 127.91Rank 9Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 251.76Rank 2Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9994Off-Season Demo Team 9994

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -15.88Rank 16Record 3-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 678.4 ±9.3

316LUNATECS

A+

Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 339.63Rank 1Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 39.78Rank 11Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9015Questionable Engineering

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX -11.09Rank 18Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1218, 6328, 9994

/ 100 compat

Projected

363.8 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1218, 6328, 9994

Auto

55.9 15%

Teleop

208.0 57%

Endgame

99.2 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 83%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 316, 484, 9015

/ 100 compat

Projected

368.3 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 316, 484, 9015

Auto

82.3 22%

Teleop

188.0 51%

Endgame

98.7 27%

Strengths

· 316 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 83%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.18 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score363.8pts

Blue projected score368.3pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample54alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 83%, blue 84%

Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 39%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.5
Score range: 309–423
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 780 vs event baseline 305.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

536.9Season APEX678.4

55.9Auto82.3

208Teleop188

99.2Endgame98.7

42Consistency125

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	124	127
teleop	105	296
endgame	20	103
foul	0	5
total	249	531

Result

Final score

249 – 531

Prediction correct · off by 138.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree