Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

199.95 – 427.02

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

154 – 578

Prediction correct · off by 98.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 467.8 ±9.8

427LANCE-A-LOT

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 21.74Rank 14Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 49.17Rank 19Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 129.04Rank 15Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 623 ±10.2

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 75.22Rank 7Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 190.45Rank 5Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

714Panthera

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 161.35Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 427, 2377, 449

/ 100 compat

Projected

200 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 427, 2377, 449

Auto

41.4 21%

Teleop

80.6 41%

Endgame

72.4 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 83%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 190, 5000, 714

/ 100 compat

Projected

427 pts

~3.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 190, 5000, 714

Auto

91.9 22%

Teleop

226.2 54%

Endgame

99.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 83%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.24 · Blue 3.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score200pts

Blue projected score427pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample54alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 83%, blue 92%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 41%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -227.1
Score range: 145–482
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 732 vs event baseline 305.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

467.8Season APEX623

41.4Auto91.9

80.6Teleop226.2

72.4Endgame99.7

73Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	116
teleop	90	400
endgame	0	62
foul	10	0
total	154	578

Result

Final score

154 – 578

Prediction correct · off by 98.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree