Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

639.37 – 143.67

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

526 – 285

Prediction correct · off by 127.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 696 ±9.9

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 262.84Rank 2Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

316LUNATECS

A+

Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 353.86Rank 1Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

157AZTECHS

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 22.67Rank 8Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 553.2 ±9.3

9015Questionable Engineering

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX -39.21Rank 18Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 101.93Rank 17Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 80.95Rank 6Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6328, 316, 157

/ 100 compat

Projected

639.4 pts

~3.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6328, 316, 157

Auto

124.3 20%

Teleop

328.8 52%

Endgame

180.9 29%

Strengths

· 316 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 92%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9015, 2539, 5181

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.7 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9015, 2539, 5181

Auto

76.8 53%

Teleop

47.7 33%

Endgame

20.8 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 92%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 3.33 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score639.4pts

Blue projected score143.7pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample54alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 92%, blue 82%

Supercharged bonusred 42%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 495.7
Score range: 90–693
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 811 vs event baseline 298.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

696Season APEX553.2

124.3Auto76.8

328.8Teleop47.7

180.9Endgame20.8

114Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	85	65
teleop	301	122
endgame	135	98
foul	5	0
total	526	285

Result

Final score

526 – 285

Prediction correct · off by 127.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree