Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

204.6 – 264.53

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

240 – 303

Prediction correct · off by 36.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 580.2 ±9.8

10979Tiger Robotics

Season APEX 180.2Event APEX 0.24Rank 20Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

427LANCE-A-LOT

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 19.16Rank 14Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 185.2Rank 5Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 520.4 ±40.6

3637The Daleks

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 77.12Rank 12Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

341Miss Daisy

Season APEX 278.9Event APEX 206.59Rank 4Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9994Off-Season Demo Team 9994

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -19.18Rank 16Record 3-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10979, 427, 5000

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.6 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10979, 427, 5000

Auto

33.6 16%

Teleop

110.2 54%

Endgame

61.9 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 83%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3637, 341, 9994

/ 100 compat

Projected

264.5 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3637, 341, 9994

Auto

38.2 15%

Teleop

138.9 53%

Endgame

84.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 83%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.82 · Blue 2.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score204.6pts

Blue projected score264.5pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample54alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 83%, blue 83%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -59.9
Score range: 151–319
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 543 vs event baseline 300.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

580.2Season APEX520.4

33.6Auto38.2

110.2Teleop138.9

61.9Endgame84.5

6Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	84
teleop	136	185
endgame	15	34
foul	20	0
total	240	303

Result

Final score

240 – 303

Prediction correct · off by 36.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree