Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

330.02 – 231.72

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

360 – 214

Prediction correct · off by 23.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 636.3 ±10.7

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 44.88Rank 11Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

714Panthera

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 157.47Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 127.67Rank 15Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 573.4 ±8.1

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 87.86Rank 7Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

321RoboLancers

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 54.87Rank 10Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 88.99Rank 6Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 484, 714, 449

/ 100 compat

Projected

330 pts

~2.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 484, 714, 449

Auto

108.0 33%

Teleop

149.9 46%

Endgame

69.6 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 89%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 190, 321, 5181

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.7 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 190, 321, 5181

Auto

65.3 28%

Teleop

145.8 63%

Endgame

19.6 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 89%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.79 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score330pts

Blue projected score231.7pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample54alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 89%, blue 84%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 98.3
Score range: 178–384
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 574 vs event baseline 301.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

636.3Season APEX573.4

108Auto65.3

149.9Teleop145.8

69.6Endgame19.6

74Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	88	66
teleop	198	106
endgame	59	42
foul	15	0
total	360	214

Result

Final score

360 – 214

Prediction correct · off by 23.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree