Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

224.57 – 315.73

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

71 – 293

Prediction correct · off by 88.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 719.4 ±8.8

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 74.84Rank 11Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 121.69Rank 7Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10979Tiger Robotics

Season APEX 180.2Event APEX 28.04Rank 20Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 695 ±8.7

5000HAMMERHEADS

A+

Season APEX 321.8Event APEX 187.54Rank 5Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3637The Daleks

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 66.68Rank 12Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

321RoboLancers

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 61.51Rank 10Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 484, 190, 10979

/ 100 compat

Projected

224.6 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 484, 190, 10979

Auto

65.3 29%

Teleop

141.5 63%

Endgame

17.9 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5000, 3637, 321

/ 100 compat

Projected

315.7 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5000, 3637, 321

Auto

67.7 21%

Teleop

165.6 52%

Endgame

85.0 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.64 · Blue 2.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score224.6pts

Blue projected score315.7pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample54alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 78%, blue 86%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -91.2
Score range: 166–375
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 364 vs event baseline 329.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

719.4Season APEX695

65.3Auto67.7

141.5Teleop165.6

17.9Endgame85

108Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	65
teleop	29	183
endgame	22	45
foul	0	0
total	71	293

Result

Final score

71 – 293

Prediction correct · off by 88.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree