Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

449.85 – 123.36

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

546 – 304

Prediction correct · off by 138.4 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 659.3 ±9.3

316LUNATECS

A+

Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 280.93Rank 1Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1218SCH Robotics

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 137.35Rank 9Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 31.57Rank 19Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 661.6 ±9.9

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 77.44Rank 15Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

157AZTECHS

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 14.25Rank 8Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 31.67Rank 17Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 316, 1218, 2377

/ 100 compat

Projected

449.9 pts

~3.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 316, 1218, 2377

Auto

60.7 14%

Teleop

262.9 59%

Endgame

123.2 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 83%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 449, 157, 2539

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.4 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 449, 157, 2539

Auto

44.4 36%

Teleop

41.7 33%

Endgame

38.4 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 83%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 3.21 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score449.9pts

Blue projected score123.4pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample54alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 83%, blue 87%

Supercharged bonusred 39%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 326.5
Score range: 65–508
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 850 vs event baseline 320.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

659.3Season APEX661.6

60.7Auto44.4

262.9Teleop41.7

123.2Endgame38.4

66Consistency119

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	98	101
teleop	286	144
endgame	162	59
foul	0	0
total	546	304

Result

Final score

546 – 304

Prediction correct · off by 138.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree