Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

473.94 – 262.16

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

540 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 98.1 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 772.7 ±8.7

6328Mechanical Advantage

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 212.55Rank 2Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 63.6Rank 6Record 5-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

341Miss Daisy

Season APEX 278.9Event APEX 197.79Rank 4Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 269.7 ±11.7

714Panthera

Season APEX 51.7Event APEX 171.76Rank 3Record 7-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9015Questionable Engineering

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX -16.88Rank 18Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 107.28Rank 13Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6328, 5181, 341

/ 100 compat

Projected

473.9 pts

~3.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6328, 5181, 341

Auto

114.3 24%

Teleop

225.9 48%

Endgame

127.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 92%

Supercharged: 45%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 714, 9015, 122

/ 100 compat

Projected

262.2 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 714, 9015, 122

Auto

65.3 25%

Teleop

156.2 61%

Endgame

35.4 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 92%

Supercharged: 45%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 3.26 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score473.9pts

Blue projected score262.2pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample54alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 92%, blue 86%

Supercharged bonusred 45%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 211.8
Score range: 205–531
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 672 vs event baseline 318.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

772.7Season APEX269.7

114.3Auto65.3

225.9Teleop156.2

127.1Endgame35.4

53Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	129	94
teleop	254	38
endgame	152	0
foul	5	0
total	540	132

Result

Final score

540 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 98.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree