Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

197.18 – 250.71

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

384 – 323

Prediction missed · off by 129.6 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 509.5 ±40.8

10979Tiger Robotics

Season APEX 180.2Event APEX -7.9Rank 20Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9994Off-Season Demo Team 9994

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -29.95Rank 16Record 3-5-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

316LUNATECS

A+

Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 235.03Rank 1Record 6-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 785.9 ±8.1

3637The Daleks

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 52.62Rank 12Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 146.17Rank 7Record 4-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 51.92Rank 15Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10979, 9994, 316

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.2 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10979, 9994, 316

Auto

25.0 13%

Teleop

137.1 70%

Endgame

32.6 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3637, 190, 449

/ 100 compat

Projected

250.7 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3637, 190, 449

Auto

66.8 27%

Teleop

138.5 55%

Endgame

46.1 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.8 · Blue 2.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score197.2pts

Blue projected score250.7pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample54alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 78%, blue 89%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -53.5
Score range: 140–308
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 707 vs event baseline 314.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

509.5Season APEX785.9

25Auto66.8

137.1Teleop138.5

32.6Endgame46.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	68
teleop	216	181
endgame	92	74
foul	5	0
total	384	323

Result

Final score

384 – 323

Prediction missed · off by 129.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree