Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

201.23 – 157.71

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

236 – 214

Prediction correct · off by 45.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 624 ±9.3

427LANCE-A-LOT

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 30.79Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

272Cyber Crusaders

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 84.23Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 86.21Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 381.2 ±9.3

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 90.17Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

486Positronic Panthers

Season APEX 81.1Event APEX 18.54Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 49Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 427, 272, 2539

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 427, 272, 2539

Auto

20.6 11%

Teleop

123.4 65%

Endgame

45.9 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5181, 486, 862

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5181, 486, 862

Auto

35.7 23%

Teleop

84.2 55%

Endgame

34.5 22%

Strengths

· 5181 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score201.2pts

Blue projected score157.7pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.5
Score range: 140–219
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 450 vs event baseline 97.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

624Season APEX381.2

20.6Auto35.7

123.4Teleop84.2

45.9Endgame34.5

1Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	49
teleop	120	114
endgame	88	46
foul	5	5
total	236	214

Result

Final score

236 – 214

Prediction correct · off by 45.5 pts

Match videos

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