Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

155.61 – 79.64

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

173 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 16 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 381.2 ±9.3

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 89.36Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

486Positronic Panthers

Season APEX 81.1Event APEX 18.06Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 48.19Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 180.2 ±11

10070Ghost Bots

Season APEX 102.6Event APEX 28.94Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6808William Tennent Robotics

Season APEX 42.3Event APEX 19.43Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10400DART Doane Academy Robotics Team

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX 31.27Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5181, 486, 862

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5181, 486, 862

Auto

33.4 22%

Teleop

82.8 55%

Endgame

35.4 23%

Strengths

· 5181 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10070, 6808, 10400

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10070, 6808, 10400

Auto

20.0 28%

Teleop

34.2 48%

Endgame

17.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.76 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score155.6pts

Blue projected score79.6pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 76
Score range: 63–173
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 238 vs event baseline 95.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

381.2Season APEX180.2

33.4Auto20

82.8Teleop34.2

35.4Endgame17.7

27Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	27
teleop	92	20
endgame	34	18
foul	0	0
total	173	65

Result

Final score

173 – 65

Prediction correct · off by 16 pts

Match videos

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