Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

78.36 – 84.48

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

47 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 28.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 266.1 ±11.7

11366Red Devil's Redemption

Season APEX 30.4Event APEX 5.76Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10584Ridge Robotics

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 38.22Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1089Team Mercury

Season APEX 150Event APEX 34.38Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 230.8 ±9.9

5684Titans of Tech

Season APEX 24.1Event APEX 14.48Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 52.57Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

708Hatters Robotics

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 17.43Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11366, 10584, 1089

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11366, 10584, 1089

Auto

19.3 26%

Teleop

30.8 41%

Endgame

24.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5684, 4575, 708

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5684, 4575, 708

Auto

20.6 27%

Teleop

34.7 45%

Endgame

21.0 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score78.4pts

Blue projected score84.5pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6.1
Score range: 61–101
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 157 vs event baseline 95.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

266.1Season APEX230.8

19.3Auto20.6

30.8Teleop34.7

24.9Endgame21

25Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	22
teleop	7	27
endgame	11	46
foul	5	15
total	47	110

Result

Final score

47 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 28.4 pts

Match videos

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