Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

67.53 – 24.3

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

39 – 48

Prediction missed · off by 26.1 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 271.2 ±11.9

709Femme Tech Fatale

Season APEX 84.1Event APEX 41.26Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 11.69Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1168Malvern Robotics

Season APEX 79.2Event APEX 14.58Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 204.7 ±10.4

7110Heights Bytes

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 5.71Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9014Vulcan Mechanics

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 6.29Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10584Ridge Robotics

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 12.3Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 709, 862, 1168

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 709, 862, 1168

Auto

6.7 10%

Teleop

45.0 66%

Endgame

16.0 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7110, 9014, 10584

/ 100 compat

Projected

24.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7110, 9014, 10584

Auto

3.4 14%

Teleop

10.3 42%

Endgame

10.6 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.53 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score67.5pts

Blue projected score24.3pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.2
Score range: 10–82
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 87 vs event baseline 76.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

271.2Season APEX204.7

6.7Auto3.4

45Teleop10.3

16Endgame10.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	5
teleop	26	25
endgame	6	18
foul	0	0
total	39	48

Result

Final score

39 – 48

Prediction missed · off by 26.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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