Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

69.56 – 78.29

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

144 – 75

Prediction missed · off by 38.9 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 294.2 ±11.1

1626Falcon Robotics

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 20.06Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2607The Fighting RoboVikings

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 50.29Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10400DART Doane Academy Robotics Team

Season APEX 35.3Event APEX -0.79Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 345.9 ±9.8

10979Tiger Robotics

Season APEX 180.2Event APEX 12.86Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9027PATH to Domination

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 15.14Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 50.29Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1626, 2607, 10400

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1626, 2607, 10400

Auto

17.9 26%

Teleop

41.5 61%

Endgame

8.5 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10979, 9027, 4575

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10979, 9027, 4575

Auto

16.6 21%

Teleop

42.3 54%

Endgame

19.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score69.6pts

Blue projected score78.3pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8.7
Score range: 57–91
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 219 vs event baseline 71.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

294.2Season APEX345.9

17.9Auto16.6

41.5Teleop42.3

8.5Endgame19.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	36
teleop	73	36
endgame	37	3
foul	0	0
total	144	75

Result

Final score

144 – 75

Prediction missed · off by 38.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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