Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

72.39 – 59.87

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

85 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 8.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 289 ±9.8

486Positronic Panthers

Season APEX 81.1Event APEX 17.63Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

708Hatters Robotics

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 16.73Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10584Ridge Robotics

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 38.03Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 330.8 ±12.9

2234Alternating Current

Season APEX 96.9Event APEX 8.17Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1626Falcon Robotics

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 16.31Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10979Tiger Robotics

Season APEX 180.2Event APEX 35.39Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 486, 708, 10584

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 486, 708, 10584

Auto

14.3 20%

Teleop

23.5 32%

Endgame

35.0 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2234, 1626, 10979

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2234, 1626, 10979

Auto

15.5 28%

Teleop

26.6 48%

Endgame

13.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score72.4pts

Blue projected score59.9pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.5
Score range: 43–89
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 149 vs event baseline 94.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

289Season APEX330.8

14.3Auto15.5

23.5Teleop26.6

35Endgame13.7

40Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	16
teleop	35	23
endgame	18	25
foul	0	0
total	85	64

Result

Final score

85 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 8.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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