Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

165.09 – 110.23

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

175 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 9.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 391.3 ±9.3

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 48.23Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

427LANCE-A-LOT

Season APEX 78.2Event APEX 28.1Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2607The Fighting RoboVikings

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 88.76Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 408 ±11.4

709Femme Tech Fatale

Season APEX 84.1Event APEX 10.14Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 91.52Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

321RoboLancers

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 8.57Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 862, 427, 2607

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 862, 427, 2607

Auto

31.5 21%

Teleop

86.3 57%

Endgame

34.1 22%

Strengths

· 2607 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 709, 5181, 321

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 709, 5181, 321

Auto

34.5 31%

Teleop

48.8 44%

Endgame

28.5 25%

Strengths

· 5181 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score165.1pts

Blue projected score110.2pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 54.9
Score range: 93–182
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 276 vs event baseline 93.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

391.3Season APEX408

31.5Auto34.5

86.3Teleop48.8

34.1Endgame28.5

15Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	24
teleop	71	32
endgame	64	45
foul	5	0
total	175	101

Result

Final score

175 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 9.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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