Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

81.53 – 71.19

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

129 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 33.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 339.8 ±11.2

816Anomaly

Season APEX 33Event APEX -8.34Rank 23Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

272Cyber Crusaders

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 79.05Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5113Combustible Lemons

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 10.82Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 238.6 ±9.8

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 51.81Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7110Heights Bytes

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX -9.96Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10070Ghost Bots

Season APEX 102.6Event APEX 29.34Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 816, 272, 5113

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 816, 272, 5113

Auto

11.0 13%

Teleop

56.5 69%

Endgame

14.7 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4575, 7110, 10070

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4575, 7110, 10070

Auto

17.7 32%

Teleop

22.1 40%

Endgame

15.6 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score81.5pts

Blue projected score71.2pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.3
Score range: 54–99
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 220 vs event baseline 93.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

339.8Season APEX238.6

11Auto17.7

56.5Teleop22.1

14.7Endgame15.6

5Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	24
teleop	52	27
endgame	52	30
foul	15	10
total	129	91

Result

Final score

129 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 33.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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