Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

60.82 – 17.56

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

62 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 22.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 218.2 ±11.7

2458Team Chaos

Season APEX 64Event APEX 10Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

708Hatters Robotics

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 19.37Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2559Normality Zero

Season APEX 32Event APEX 31.45Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 258 ±12.4

709Femme Tech Fatale

Season APEX 84.1Event APEX 8.35Rank 27Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

9027PATH to Domination

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 10.42Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10993EP Robotics

Season APEX 92.7Event APEX -1.21Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2458, 708, 2559

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2458, 708, 2559

Auto

9.7 16%

Teleop

24.5 41%

Endgame

26.0 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 709, 9027, 10993

/ 100 compat

Projected

17.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 709, 9027, 10993

Auto

18.4 100%

Teleop

-7.1 0%

Endgame

5.5 33%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score60.8pts

Blue projected score17.6pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 16%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.3
Score range: 1–78
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 123 vs event baseline 91.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

218.2Season APEX258

9.7Auto18.4

24.5Teleop-7.1

26Endgame5.5

65Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	19
teleop	16	19
endgame	28	23
foul	0	0
total	62	61

Result

Final score

62 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 22.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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