Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

134.25 – 105.86

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

138 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 36.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 334.4 ±11.2

10584Ridge Robotics

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 40.42Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5181Explorer Robotics

Season APEX 192.2Event APEX 91.49Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6226Blue Devils

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 2.34Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 233.1 ±9.8

9014Vulcan Mechanics

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 21.56Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

486Positronic Panthers

Season APEX 81.1Event APEX 23.59Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 60.71Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10584, 5181, 6226

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10584, 5181, 6226

Auto

35.0 26%

Teleop

65.9 48%

Endgame

36.1 26%

Strengths

· 5181 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9014, 486, 4575

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9014, 486, 4575

Auto

15.0 15%

Teleop

52.3 52%

Endgame

34.0 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score134.3pts

Blue projected score105.9pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 28.4
Score range: 89–151
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 175 vs event baseline 91.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

334.4Season APEX233.1

35Auto15

65.9Teleop52.3

36.1Endgame34

52Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	17
teleop	63	6
endgame	34	14
foul	0	0
total	138	37

Result

Final score

138 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 36.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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