Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

29.57 – 139.8

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

26 – 120

Prediction correct · off by 11.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 144.6 ±13.3

6226Blue Devils

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 3.81Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2458Team Chaos

Season APEX 64Event APEX 8.22Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5684Titans of Tech

Season APEX 24.1Event APEX 17.54Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 573.8 ±9.3

708Hatters Robotics

Season APEX 122.2Event APEX 20.01Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 82.77Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1089Team Mercury

Season APEX 150Event APEX 37.02Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6226, 2458, 5684

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.6 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6226, 2458, 5684

Auto

16.9 57%

Teleop

5.9 20%

Endgame

6.6 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 708, 2539, 1089

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 708, 2539, 1089

Auto

14.9 11%

Teleop

75.4 55%

Endgame

46.8 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.63 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score29.6pts

Blue projected score139.8pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -110.2
Score range: 11–159
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 146 vs event baseline 105.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

144.6Season APEX573.8

16.9Auto14.9

5.9Teleop75.4

6.6Endgame46.8

105Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	0
teleop	1	71
endgame	10	49
foul	5	0
total	26	120

Result

Final score

26 – 120

Prediction correct · off by 11.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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